GroupM forecasts UK ad spend to grow by 4.8% in 2023, a significant increase from the numbers given by the Advertising Association (AA) and WARC in April, which shows a level growth will only stop at 0.5% as brands remain cautious. into the second half.
The advertising business is predicting UK ad revenue to hit $49.4 billion (£39.3) this year. It also predicts UK growth to hit 5.3% by 2024.
Taking inflation into account, none of the forecasts exceeded expectations. However, GroupM’s slightly more upbeat approach over the next six months suggests something positive could happen. By contrast, the AA/WARC forecast is a significant downgrade from previous projections, which saw spending increase by 3.8% this year, as suggested in January.
Ad spend will stagnate this year due to the effects of inflation, but GroupM is expecting a “return to some normalcy” in ad revenue growth, thanks in part to an expansion retail vehicles, is expected to grow by 9.9% globally. It expects retail vehicles to account for 14.4% of total advertising revenue globally this year, and predicts that number will reach 15.4% by 2028.
Elsewhere globally, digital channels are expected to grow by 8.4%, alongside small audio (0.3%) and OOH has a double-digit growth forecast. 12.7%, supported by a 39.7% increase in the Chinese market. Meanwhile, television dropped to -1.2% and printed newspapers dropped to -4.8%.
“We are at an inflection point as the drivers of ad growth beyond and beyond GDP growth are maturing, the pandemic outbreak is fading, and the dynamic rise of Digital advertising has slowed down.”
However, it shows that the arrival of AI can change the single-digit average ad growth it predicts.